Final words

This blog has been a bit of a bumpy ride to say the least! I initially came into this blogasphere thinking I would write some grand posts looking at the impacts of our greed for all resources...

With all my best intentions, this was never my passion. I ultimately wanted to look at energy, and how it shapes and controls our lives. 

This became a firm reality when I hit upon an article in The Times which explored our future energy security. From there I have explored our excessive use of energy through reporting on COP21, and how to mitigate against our exploitative habits through renewables (here, here and here.. oh, and also here). But renewables are old news, over-discussed and a tad boring... so I wanted to incorporate some of the issues in measuring and understanding energy consumption (something of vital importance if you are going to define exploitation (which can be found here and here)), as well as other issues people usually cite when faulting renewables (because people always complain about things!), and how to mitigate against the main issue (reliability) with storage solutions (here, here and here). My aim across all of my later posts was to discuss the current research being published in mainstream journals to understand how the scientific community was approaching a contemporary topic of astronomical future (and arguably current) importance.  

Wooo! Hope! (Source)

Ultimately, my opinions have changed. I have gone from someone who was a little sceptical (maybe cynical) of the potential that renewables could have in mitigating carbon emissions, to being incredibly hopeful.

Previously I would always argue that nuclear is the most promising energy source, as it is the most efficient and least polluting fuel. However efficiency isn't everything, and provided the initial investment hurdles can be overcome, the future for renewables could be bright. Two posts have really inspired me: Morocco and its quest to become a renewable powerhouse and the potential host for COP22; and the creative solutions for energy storage that are being developed and discussed. However the most heart-warming article I have read is the first-order investigative research report on Ontario's potential to become a fully renewable city! We are now at the stage of scientific understanding and development where we could develop fully renewable cities. Whether we will be a matter for politicians, lobbyists and people with money to decide!

Renewables are our best friend and worst enemy. They are cause for both optimism and concern. I will try to explain why.

Our future depends on renewable resources - in a world that thrives on consumerism and excessive consumption of resources, the limitless resources will always be most valuable. However, the means of collecting and generating electricity from these resources is expensive, technologically difficult and require a shift in perceptions. They are also expensive and tend not to provide the same standalone reliability compared to a fossil-fuel power station, as they must be used in conjunction with other renewable sources or energy storage solutions, further making them more expensive. Above all, it's worrying to know that amongst all the COP21 talks and investment in recent months and years, the dawn of renewables may be quickly over in the UK (a fellow blogger, Caitlin, discussed this topic in fantastic detail over at her blog)!

However from my blogging I hope you can see the optimism in academic literature. Scientists are trying to improve the situation through developing new and innovative ways to power our future. The models, experiments and investigations, although may seem silly ("why would you model the potential for renewables to fully power desalination plants?" you might ask), the results show that renewables have the capacity to do the things we need them to do.

At the beginning of these blogs I discussed the potential for a centralised resource system which efficiently distributes resources based on demand, instead of based on their value. I now think that idea is wrong. The distribution of resources equally and efficiently, although reduces the potential for greed and exploitation, does not mean we are not harming the environment. A means of efficiently collecting resources whilst having little impact upon the environment is of even greater importance. Although I have only focused on energy and the potential of renewable solutions, I believe other resources, when investigated could be efficiently and substantially consumed.  

Scientists have done their work. Its now time for everyone else to join in and provide a means to make renewables work. Our exploitation, greed, reliance and demand for electrical resources will never cease. However, how efficiently and environmentally friendly we collect, modify and distribute these resources can change. it just requires someone to take that first step.

*Little bit of a brain dump, sorry....*

TL;DR: renewables are promising, scientists are great; however only time will tell!

COP21: The Results

So COP21 has now ended! It was extended an extra day to finalise the agreement, but what has been the result?

You can find the report here for yourself (or, if you want the TL;DR version, it's here). For me, it's nothing spectacular.

I suppose I was expecting detailed targets and commitments from regions and countries. Compared to Copenhagen in 2009, this is a great result - there are some legally binding aspects, but in terms of carbon targets, there is nothing explicit. I'll explain.

The report asks that:

• Greenhouse gas emissions are peaked as quickly as possible, towards a world which balances human emissions with natural sinks -- An important aspect, as it incentives greater afforestation to provide a more sinks, ensuring the security of woodland and forest habitats. However, this requirement isn't until the second half of the 21st century, so maybe it will be too late by then?
• Review the progress of countries every 5 years -- now this is one of the legally binding requirements. I feel this can facilitate a good conversation and further progress in the future and drive further commitments.
• Limiting global temps to 2C, and strive towards 1.5C -- I really admire the ambition of the delegates. But I think the results from our mock COP21 (see Kaitlin's opinion of our mock COP21 here) show that we will strive to get to 2C. We managed 2.7C and the assessments of the INDCs predict countries will only just reach 2.7C.
• US$100 billion every year to finance climate initiatives in developing regions -- this item is a little more confusing. The report outlines the fund is for "mitigation actions" and "implementation". Funds will range from financial resources up front to results-based targets. I'm not entirely sure how I feel about this aspect. The funds are only for developing countries, but some there are many issues with that. Do all countries have equal allocations of money? For those more affected by climate, will the funds be prioritised for them, or can it be used for aid? This will only come by 2020 though...

The legal aspects are the review (good!) and submission of targets (great!). The irony: the submitted targets will be voluntary (not legally binding).

Overall, I see this as a good stepping stone. Action needed to be taken and this is a good step forward.

What do you think of the results of COP21? Do you think the results are positive or negative?

The glimmer of hope in COP21

In light of COP21 and this blog's (slowly developing) aims to investigate resource utilisation with regards energy production, it makes sense to look at renewables! Essentially, renewables can provide countries with unlimited, free electricity, if the conditions are correct. Therefore, it shouldn't be surprising to know that sunnier countries have pledged high levels of solar energy investment to contribute towards their carbon targets.

Morocco has made great strives towards reducing their reliance on coal. In 2011, Morocco was heavily reliant (47%) on coal for energy production. However, this has considerably reduced from 2001 (77%). Furthermore, they have made great steps through commitments at COP21, agreeing to reduce GHG emissions by 32% by 2030 through 50% renewable electricity generation by 2025 and reduced energy consumption of 15% by 2030. Finally, and most significantly, they have offered to host COP22, solidifying their drive and dedication to meeting their climate objectives.

To do this, Morocco requires support. The UN Green Climate Fund can be of some help; however investment by private companies is becoming increasingly significant in efforts. Saudi investment has been important in the Arab region.

The shining hope in COP21 (Source)

A solar thermal plant planned to open next month will aim to eventually supply energy for 20 hours a day from energy collected from the sun and thermally-stored in liquid salt. The potential renewable generation capacity could provide export capacity to Europe, instead of the heavy importation of electricity from Spain.

Another great blog post has questions the hopefulness of COP21, citing Morocco and Ethiopia as leaders in setting targets internationally. I agree that more needs to be done - but maybe the baby steps will eventually make more of an impact in the future? I think there is some hope from COP21, even if it is only the smaller and less developed countries providing that hope.

Bad Coal, Good Alternatives

Coal is an important resource and is predicted to become of increasing importance in new energy production. In light of COP21 and a global push to keep carbon emissions to a minimum this is an important issue.

Coal has become a staple across the energy landscape (Source) 

Analysis which was presented at COP21 suggests that if all coal plants planned to be built by 2030 are built, coal emissions would increase by 400%. Even with no additional coal plant construction, predicted emissions from coal are 150% too high to keep global temperatures below 2 degrees.

Calculated carbon increase from analysis results (Source)

This is a slight issue... And considering temperatures have already gone up by an average of 1 degree since pre-industrial times, the threshold of 2 degree temperature rise is becoming more and more problematic.

For many countries, providing their citizens with electricity is of far more importance than cutting carbon emissions, even for those countries may have agreed Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (to cutting carbon), or INDCs. Ultimately, this can lead to a number of issues which will impact the final result of COP21: increases in carbon emissions and displacement of renewable energy. These countries, many of which are developing, such as India and China, are still investing in renewable energy sources, but the uptake, cost and generation is too small to be effective in bringing electricity to the masses.

So how do we approach coal? I believe we need to appreciate it is a cheap, very widely recognised and used technology globally. What can be changed is the types of coal and the technology used within coal plants to mitigate the issues. Furthermore, pushing cleaner technologies, such as gas may be a more suitable, cleaner and (potentially) more efficient solution (and one which will be dominating the UK energy space for the next 20 years).

Technology:

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)? I feel CCS is a utopian idea which is and will continue to be only suitable in a hypothetical world. CCS has had has limited testing. It provides us with an additional carbon sink. But continues to allow our exploitative approach to carbon for energy. There are also risks to CCS. The principle is to pump the carbon back into old oil fields, but contamination and leakages could present themselves as a large issue.

Renewables? Could be a solution for developing nations. Funding must be available, however renewables do provide grassroots-scale energy production without the need for expensive infrastructure development - an especially important issue in fast growing cities.

These two latter aspects are items I will look at and investigate in my next two blogs: carbon sinks (afforestation) and renewable production (solar farms) - how can our use of the sun and trees mitigate against our exploitative use of electricity?

Edit: the second photo was added at a later date to provide some visualisation to the figures discussed above

Malawi’s trees

A vital aspect of COP21 is understanding how the world can mitigate against increasing CO2 levels. One way is to reduce reliance on carbon-based energy sources. The other solution is to improve carbon sinks.

Malawi is not a country you hear much about. It is a country which struggles to provide energy to all its population - only 10% are connected to the grid; however, 90% of the electricity generation in Malawi is produced by a very unreliable system of hydroelectric power stations.

Those who do not have electricity depend on firewood. Depend isn't a strong enough word. Malawi has one of the highest deforestation rate globally. This has had massive impacts on the environment: reduced impact of CO2 sinks, soil erosion and reduced soil infiltration. The lack of groundwater recharge promotes surface runoff and increases river discharge, ultimately causing flooding and impacting the reliability of hydroelectric power plants.

Deforestation is highly prevalent (Source)

The solution: more coal. Total emissions of Malawi are predicted to increase by 38% by 2040. But they haven't ignored the INDCs. Mitigation against the coal power plants will include deforestation, increased 'clean' cookstove usage, and increased utilisation of solar (with help from the clean carbon find).

Although this isn't the best way forward (in my opinion), Malawi has a desire to develop. To do this, they need reliable power generation.

The human impacts of deforestation have heavily impacted the potential for renewables. Solar, although very under utilised, has great potential in Malawi. The current decision is simple, wood or coal. Do we save the forests and improve the production and potential of hydroelectric power, or do we continue deforesting regions of Malawi because wood burning has a lower CO2 level than coal?

*This blog will be edited when I get to a computer... I am currently on a plane using my phone, so more links and images will be added later*

Edit: links and images have been added! There is also a short blog series on deforestation in Malawi which might be of interest.